North Korea's Missile Development: A Decisive Decade for the Peninsula

Military Parade Amid Olympic Games 🎇

On February 8, just one day before the start of the Olympic Winter Games in South Korea, North Korea held a military parade showcasing their latest rockets. The timing of this event was not coincidental. It clearly aimed to send a strong message to the outside world. Nonetheless, the country is gaining more knowledge each year and is making rapid progress in its missile development.

A Growing Arsenal 📈

North Korea's missile testing regime has seen a significant increase over the years:

• 1994 - 2007: 16 missile tests and 1 nuclear test
• 2008 - September 2016: 80 missile tests and 4 nuclear tests

With the rate at which they are progressing, it's estimated they will well surpass 100 missile tests in four years.

An Alliance Gone Cold ❄️

Despite not being part of the Warsaw Pact, a collective defense treaty among communist states, North Korea found strong allies in China and the Soviet Union. Their relationship, however, saw significant decline post the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. As their power waned, North Korea increasingly felt vulnerable, prompting them to reprocess plutonium from their Soviet-built reactor to develop nuclear weapons.

From Clinton to Trump: A Saga of Policies 📜

Clinton Administration: Agreed Framework 🤝

In an effort to keep North Korea from leaving the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons Treaty:

• Bill Clinton offered to suspend some military exercises with South Korea.
• An Agreed Framework was established which included shutting down the Yongbon reactor.
• North Korea was promised two light-water reactors and 500,000 tons of heavy fuel-oil annually.
• Monitoring by International inspectors was assured.

Bush Administration: Axis of Evil 😡

When George Bush took office:

• North Korea was placed on the Axis of Evil in his 2000 State of the Union Address.
• Fuel-oil supply was cut, prompting North Korea to resume its weapons program and expel international inspectors.
• They officially left the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in 2003.

Subsequent Six-Party Talks to curb nuclear tests rendered few results, pushing the Bush administration into making significant concessions.

Obama Administration: Strategic Patience 🕰️

Barack Obama aimed for a different approach:

• His method, dubbed Strategic Patience, aimed to reduce tensions by avoiding aggressive threats or engaging in negotiations.

However, North Korea continued to improve their missile capabilities, indicating the inadequacy of this strategy.

Trump Administration: Isolation and Threats 🔥

Donald Trump's tenure marked another shift:

• Policies included isolating North Korea and engaging in a war of words through platforms like Twitter.

The approach was intended to completely isolate North Korea but was met with mixed results.

The Nuclear Shield 🛡️

North Korea perceives its nuclear capabilities as essential for its independence:

• Dr. Victor Cha, who once headed the American delegation at the Six-Party Talks, was told by North Korean negotiators that their nuclear arsenal ensured they wouldn't meet the same fate as Iraq and Afghanistan.

Challenges and Capabilities ⚙️

Despite their advancements, North Korea faces significant challenges in making their missiles reliable:

• Increasing range and accuracy
• Ensuring they withstand re-entry into the atmosphere
• Carrying the weight and size of a nuclear warhead

These variables make it difficult to precisely gauge North Korea's current capabilities. However, they are actively using what they have to shape their geopolitical environment.

Decoupling Security of Allies 🇺🇸 🇯🇵 🇰🇷

One objective of North Korea's missile program is to create doubt in the minds of South Koreans, Americans, and Japanese about their mutual defense agreements. By reaching the continental United States, North Korea aims to question whether the US and Japan would risk their major cities to defend Seoul.

A Glimmer of Hope? 🌟

While tensions with the United States remain high, there's a spark of diplomatic warming between North and South Korea. At the Olympic Winter Games in South Korea, the two countries walked together at the opening ceremony and even formed a combined Korean ice hockey team. Furthermore, South Korean President Moon Jae-in met with Kim Jong Un’s sister, and received an invitation to meet Kim Jong Un in Pyongyang.

Conclusion: A Decisive Decade 🕊️

As North Korea and South Korea enter what could be a decisive decade, the coming developments will significantly impact the Korean Peninsula. The world watches closely, hoping for a shift towards genuine disarmament and demilitarization.

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